Introduction
THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
came into being on August 16, 1960. The reluctant republic, as it
has often been termed, was seen as a necessary compromise by Greek
Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, the two peoples who would live within
it, and the three foreign powers who had been parties to its
creation. Greek Cypriots preferred enosis, that is, the union of
their island with the Greek motherland, rather than the creation of
an independent state. Turkish Cypriots preferred that the island
remain under British rule as it had been since 1878. If British
governance were not possible, many Turkish Cypriots favored
partition, or taksim, of the island and the union of the parts of
the island in which they lived with Turkey--their ethnic motherland.
Greece, for its part, preferred that enosis be achieved once again
and that Cyprus, like a number of other islands, be united with the
Hellenic motherland. Turkey's principal desire was that Cyprus not
come under Greek control and be yet another island off the Turkish
coast from which it could be attacked by its traditional enemy.
Britain would have preferred a more measured cessation of its rule
of the island, but the armed insurrection during the second half of
the 1950s made the creation of an independent Cypriot republic seem
a way out of a difficult situation. In addition, Britain's military
needs could be met by arranging for bases on the island, rather than
keeping the island of Cyprus itself as a base.
Negotiations between the
Greek and Turkish foreign ministers in late 1958 and early 1959
resulted in three treaties that met to some degree the desires and
needs of Greece, Turkey, and Britain. Representatives of the Greek
Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities signed the treaties, but
without enthusiasm. The three treaties--the Treaty of Guarantee, the
Treaty of Alliance, and the Treaty of Establishment--went into
effect on August 16, 1960.
The Treaty of Guarantee
provides that Greece, Turkey, and Britain will ensure the
independence and sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus. It bans
political or economic union of the republic with any foreign state
and bans activities that would lead to such unions. Forty-eight of
the basic articles of the constitution were incorporated into the
Treaty of Guarantee, and the treaty's signatories were pledged to
uphold the "state of affairs" established by the constitution.
Article IV of the treaty states that if this "state of affairs" is
endangered or altered, Greece, Turkey, and Britain are obliged to
consult together and act to restore it. If joint consultations or
actions are not possible, these states may act independently.
The Treaty of Alliance
involves Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey. It establishes a tripartite
headquarters on the island and permits the two latter states to
deploy, respectively, 950 and 650 military personnel to Cyprus to
protect the island and train its army. The Treaty of Establishment
grants Britain sovereignty over a total of 256 square kilometers of
territory on the island's southern coast for two military bases,
Akrotiri and Dhekelia. Between the signing of these treaties in
early 1959 and independence on August 16, 1960, a long and intricate
constitution was worked out, with elaborate protections for the
rights of the smaller Turkish Cypriot community.
Almost from the
beginning, however, governing the island was difficult. Resentment
within the Greek Cypriot community arose because Turkish Cypriots
were given a larger share of government posts than the size of their
population warranted. The disproportionate number of ministers and
legislators assigned to Turkish Cypriots meant that their
representatives could veto budgets or legislation and prevent
essential government operations from being carried out. A Cypriot
army, to be composed of both ethnic groups, was not formed because
of disagreements about organizational matters. Nor was the crucial
issue of municipal government settled to the satisfaction of Turkish
Cypriots.
The complicated
governmental system established by the constitution would have had
difficulty functioning well even under normal conditions, but the
withholding of support for the new republic on the part of many
Cypriots made its smooth functioning even less likely. The acrimony,
ill will, and suspicion that existed between the two ethnic
communities made impossible the spirit of cooperation needed for the
system to succeed. Not surprisingly, the early 1960s saw the
resurgence of armed groups that had been active during the uprising
against British rule. The Greek Cypriot National Organization of
Cypriot Fighters (Ethniki Organosis Kyprion Agoniston--EOKA)
rearmed, as did its Turkish Cypriot counterpart, the Turkish
Resistance Organization (Türk Mukavemet Teskilâti--TMT). They were
joined by growing contingents of Greek and Turkish soldiers from the
mainland, whose numbers were much in excess of the limits set by the
Treaty of Alliance. The frustrations of political impasse, coupled
with the presence of armed bands, made for an explosive situation.
In late 1963, the
republic's president, Archbishop Makarios III, proposed a series of
constitutional changes that, if enacted, would have reduced the
political rights and powers of the Turkish Cypriot community. These
proposals worsened an already tense situation, and in December 1963
serious intercommunal violence broke out. In the next months,
hundreds died. In March 1964, the first members of the United
Nations Peace-keeping Force in Cyprus (UNICYP) were deployed to
Cyprus, but hostilities continued into August 1964. Only vigorous
diplomacy from United States president Lyndon Johnson prevented a
Turkish invasion in June 1964.
Several years of relative
peace ensued, but the governing system established in 1960 no longer
functioned. Turkish Cypriots had withdrawn from the republic's
politics and were fashioning a governing system of their own. In
addition, a good part of the Turkish Cypriot community lived in
enclaves because many Turkish Cypriots had abandoned their homes out
of fear of Greek Cypriot violence.
Intercommunal violence
erupted in November 1967, when two dozen Turkish Cypriots were
killed by Greek Cypriot forces under the command of Colonel George
Grivas, the leader of the insurgency against the British in the
1950s. The threat of a Turkish invasion led the Greek government to
remove Colonel Grivas and thousands of its troops from the island.
A coup d'état in Athens
in 1967 established a military dictatorship that lasted until 1974.
Elements of this regime pressed vigorously for enosis. Some members
of the junta were even willing to cede parts of Cyprus to Turkey in
exchange for a joining of the island with Greece. Greek
pro-enosists, joined by like- minded rightist Greek Cypriot groups,
put pressure on Archbishop Makarios. In 1970 there was an
unsuccessful assassination attempt on the president. Makarios
yielded to the junta on some points, once, for example, accepting
the "resignations" of several members of his cabinet known to oppose
the Athens government. He, however, would not compromise on the
larger issue of the territorial integrity of the republic. Makarios,
once a leading exponent of enosis, had come to place more value on
the independence of Cyprus as a sovereign state than on union with
Greece.
In July 1974, Greek
Cypriot underground groups and the Greek Cypriot National Guard
overthrew Archbishop Makarios and selected Nicos Sampson, a
notorious EOKA terrorist, as his replacement. Makarios escaped with
British help and appealed to world opinion at the United Nations.
Within a week of the rightist coup d'état, Turkish forces invaded
Cyprus. Turkish officials justified their country's actions by
citing the terms of Article IV of the Treaty of Guarantee, noting
the impossibility of joint action with Greece and the reluctance of
Britain to use military force to restore the "state of affairs"
established by the constitution of 1960. A brief truce permitted
Turkish forces to consolidate their positions and a quick second
campaign in mid-August allowed them to occupy 37 percent of the
republic.
The idea of enosis grew
out of the successful Greek revolution of the 1820s. The dream of
uniting all formerly Greek lands to the motherland spread during the
nineteenth century. At first the movement was confined to the small
educated segment of society, but as the general population became
literate, the megali idea (grand idea in Greek), as it was often
termed, found ever more adherents. The enosis movement had some
notable successes. Crete was returned to Greece in the late
nineteenth century, and after World War II a number of islands off
the Turkish coast became Greek. The movement also suffered major
reverses, most notably Kemal Atatürk's beating back the Greek Army
when it invaded Turkey in the early 1920s.
By the mid-twentieth
century, most Greek Cypriots desired that their island be united
with Greece. The campaign for enosis was strengthened by the
world-wide upsurge of anticolonialism after World War II. The enosis
movement, which had become coupled with the goal of ending British
rule of the island, erupted into armed rebellion in April 1955.
Cyprus's unification with
Greece faced two significant obstacles: the island's proximity to
Turkey and distance from Greece, and the presence of a substantial
Turkish Cypriot minority who had lived on the island for hundreds of
years. Either obstacle by itself could conceivably have been
overcome, but together they posed in the end an insurmountable
barrier to enosis.
The island's size and
closeness to Turkey meant that the Turkish military would be opposed
to its being occupied by Greek forces. In addition, the 800
kilometers that lay between Cyprus and the Greek mainland made it
nearly impossible for Greek forces to seize and hold the island
successfully.
The Turkish Cypriot
community was the other significant barrier to enosis. Present on
the island since it had been seized in 1571 from Venice, Turkish
Cypriots were adamantly opposed to living as a minority under Greek
rule. Few Turkish Cypriots had objected to British rule, and British
policy had been to use them as a counterweight in colonial
institutions in order to block Greek Cypriot efforts for enosis. The
growing virulence of the enosist movement was noted with concern by
the smaller community, and during the 1950s a Turkish Cypriot
nationalism emerged that rivalled that of the enosists in intensity.
Some Turkish Cypriots came to advocate taksim, that is, partition of
the island, as a way to prevent their becoming a minority in a Greek
state.
The gradually widening
division of the two communities during the twentieth century was new
to the island. For centuries the two groups had lived together in
mixed villages or in separate villages close to villages of the
other group. Intercommunal relations were harmonious if reserved;
intermarriage was rare, but interethnic violence was even rarer. The
two groups had even joined together at times to protest despotic
rule from Constantinople.
During the twentieth
century, however, the number of mixed villages declined, and the
first instances of intercommunal violence occurred. Mounting
pressure for enosis was the main cause of estrangement between the
communities. Another cause was the increase in schooling and
literacy. The two communities used textbooks from their respective
motherlands, texts laden with chauvinistic comments emphasizing the
rapacity, cruelty, and duplicity of the other community. Centuries
of conflict between Greece and Turkey afforded an ample stock of
atrocities to strengthen the aversion felt for the "traditional"
enemy, be it Greek or Turkish. The commonly practiced British
colonial policy of "divide and rule," of setting the two
communities' interests against one another to maintain London's hold
on Cyprus, also engendered intercommunal animosity. Some writers
have charged that the British policy of emphasizing the role of the
communities in governing encouraged the growth of ethnic as opposed
to Cypriot nationalism. Some scholars have noted that the absence of
Cypriot nationalism was perhaps the most fateful legacy of British
rule and that it doomed the Republic of Cyprus from the outset. A
sense of nationalism might well have muted ethnic differences and
bound the island's inhabitants together.
As a result of these
disparate factors, in the late 1950s intercommunal violence became
common for the first time in Cypriot history. Violence of Cypriot
against Cypriot flared even stronger in the 1960s and ended hopes
that the Republic of Cyprus could work as planned in the elaborate
and carefully crafted constitution of 1960.
At the end of his life,
Archbishop Makarios stated in an interview with a Norwegian
journalist that of all the mistakes he had made in his life, he most
regretted the role he had played in the movement for enosis. Even
before he became the first president of the Republic of Cyprus in
1960, Makarios was the dominant figure on Cyprus. His dominance
extended from the early 1950s when he became head of the Greek
Orthodox Church of Cyprus until his death in 1977. He had began
agitating for enosis as a young bishop. As archbishop he was the
ethnarch or leader of the Greek Cypriot community, and in that role
he continued working for union with Greece, even enduring exile for
his role in the rebellion against British rule. He regarded the
imposition of the Republic of Cyprus on the island by outside powers
as a temporary setback on the way to enosis, and a setback that he
could undo. In the late 1960s, however, Makarios stated publicly
that he had come to regard enosis as still desirable but impossible
to achieve, at least in the near future. Opposed in the 1969
presidential election by a die-hard enosist, Makarios won over 95
percent of the Greek Cypriot vote. The movement's extremists
resorted to violence in the early 1970s, even mounting assassination
attempts against him. The movement to which Makarios had given so
much had turned against him. In 1974 enosists, with extensive Greek
aid, staged a coup d'état that caused Makarios to flee the country.
The Turkish invasion a week later partitioned the country and
resulted in one-third of the island's population being driven from
their homes. The powerfully seductive ideal of enosis furthered by
Makarios during most of his career had, in his words, "destroyed
Cyprus" and made of him a tragic figure.
As of late 1992, Cyprus
remained partitioned. The southern portion of the island was
governed by the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus and
was home to the island's Greek Cypriot community. This community had
made a remarkable recovery since 1974, despite the great material
and psychological damage it had suffered from the Turkish invasion.
Its economy had flourished and modernized and created a standard of
living superior to that of some West European nations. This
achievement was made possible by a versatile and skilled work force,
a well-established entrepreneurial class, a sophisticated program of
government planning, and a highly successful tourist industry that
welcomed over a million tourists a year by the early 1990s. Foreign
economic aid also contributed to the striking economic recovery, as
did the collapse of Beirut as an international business center in
the Middle East.
Prosperity led to social
changes and permitted an expansion of the education system. Although
Greek Cypriot society remained more traditional than most European
societies, women worked more outside the home than their mothers did
and young people displayed many of the characteristics of their West
European counterparts. Education was widely available and esteemed.
The Republic of Cyprus had one of highest rates of university
graduates in the world. This was true despite the fact that, until
the early 1990s, all Greek Cypriots wishing to study at the
university level had to do so abroad because the Republic of Cyprus
had no university.
Greek Cypriot politics
matured after the invasion. During the first years of the republic's
history, political parties more closely resembled groupings or
factions around dominant individuals than organizations with
political programs. After the events of 1974, new parties with a
more clearly defined political ideology formed. Only the two
left-wing parties pre-dated 1974: the Progressive Party of the
Working People (Anorthotikon Komma Ergazomenou Laou--AKEL), a
doctrinaire yet in practice a moderate and pragmatic communist
party; and the United Democratic Union of Cyprus (Eniea Dimokratiki
Enosis Kyprou--EDEK), usually referred to as the Socialist Party
EDEK (Sosialistiko Komma EDEK), a left-wing party consisting mainly
of urban white-collar employees and professionals. In 1976 two
right-wing parties were formed: the Democratic Rally (Dimokratikos
Synagermos--DISY), led by Glafkos Klerides; and the Democratic Party
(Dimokratiko Komma--DIKO), headed by Spyros Kyprianou, who succeeded
Archbishop Makarios as president. Kyprianou remained president until
his defeat in 1988 by George Vassiliou, a businessman not tied to
any party, who had the backing of AKEL and EDEK. In addition to
these four main parties, several smaller groups were active as well.
Domestic politics
mirrored those of most other prosperous democratic countries, with
individual parties advocating policies in consonance with their
political philosophy. The overriding issue in Cypriot politics,
however, was the question of dealing with the de facto partition of
the island. Here the parties' course was unusual. The right-wing
DISY and the communist AKEL generally advocated a more flexible
approach to negotiating with the Turkish Cypriots. These two parties
favored making greater concessions than had former President
Kyprianou, and they were frequently harsh in their criticism of what
they regarded as his intransigence or insufficient sense of reality.
DIKO and EDEK, for their part, were less willing to yield up
long-held positions no matter how unacceptable they were to Turkish
Cypriot negotiators. They often condemned what they saw as President
Vassiliou's insufficient protection of the country's interests.
Greek Cypriot politics
were stable. There were four main parties in the House of
Representatives; the changing majorities in this body reflected the
public's evolving opinion on main issues. Most analysts believed,
for example, that the results of the May 1991 parliamentary
elections indicated that overall the public supported President
Vassiliou's willingness to break new ground in intercommunal
negotiations. In the elections, DISY won twenty seats in the House
of Representatives, one more than in the last parliamentary
elections in 1985, and received 35.8 percent of the vote. AKEL
increased its number of seats to eighteen, a gain of three, and got
30.6 percent of the vote. AKEL's win was all the more impressive
because in May 1990 a faction of its membership, frustrated by a
reform of AKEL that seemed too slow to them, had formed a new party,
the Democratic Socialist Renewal Movement (Anorthotiko Dimokratiko
Sosialistiko Kinima--ADISOK). The new party got 2.4 percent of vote,
but won no seats. DIKO took a drubbing, losing eight of its nineteen
seats and polling only 19.5 percent of the vote, compared with 27.6
percent in 1985. Although EDEK's share of the vote remained almost
the same, falling slightly to 10.9 percent, it gained one
parliamentary seat for a total of seven.
President Vassiliou's
popularity would again be put the test by the presidential elections
scheduled for February 1993 in which, as of late 1992, there were
four candidates. Running once again as an independent, President
Vassiliou had the support of AKEL. Glafkos Clerides, unsuccessful in
several earlier attempts to win the republic's highest political
office, had the support of DISY, the party he had founded and had
led since the mid-1970s. DIKO and Socialist Party EDEK formed an
electoral front to back Paschalis Paschalides, a businessman active
in Cypriot public affairs since the rebellion against British rule.
The fourth candidate was an independent, Yiannakis Taliotis, a
former deputy mayor of the western port of Paphos.
In the northern part of
the island, 37 percent of Cyprus's territory was occupied by the
"Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" ("TRNC"), unilaterally
proclaimed in November 1983 by the Turkish Cypriots and recognized
by no state other than Turkey. (Because this state is not recognized
by the United States government, its name is within quotation
marks.) Protected by an estimated 30,000 Turkish troops based on the
island and bolstered by much Turkish aid, the Turkish Cypriot
community has formed its own governing institutions, fashioned a
functioning democracy with a free press, put in place an education
system that extends from the pre-school to the university level, and
laid the groundwork of an economy that, despite a Greek Cypriot
economic blockade, has registered respectable growth rates and
benefited from the visits of over 300,000 tourists a year.
As of late 1992, the
Turkish Cypriot community was headed by the veteran politician Rauf
Denktas, a leading figure in Cypriot affairs since the mid-1950s.
Denktas was elected president of the "TRNC" in 1983 and again in
1990. Until mid-1992, he was supported by the National Unity Party
(Ulusal Birlik Partisi--UBP), which had been the Turkish Cypriot
governing party since its founding in 1975. After by-elections in
1991, UBP controlled forty-four of the fifty seats in the National
Assembly, the Turkish Cypriot legislative body.
Despite the UBP's virtual
monopoly of parliamentary seats, there was a vigorous political
opposition in the "TRNC." Two left- of-center parties, the Communal
Liberation Party (Toplumcu Kurtulu Partisi--TKP) and the Republican
Turkish Party (Cumhuriyetçi Türk Partisi--CTP), along with the
centrist New Dawn Party (Yeni Dogus Partisi--YDP) and several
smaller parties forcefully condemned the policies, both foreign and
domestic, pursued by the government and Denktas. These parties
generally recommended greater flexibility in negotiating with the
Republic of Cyprus over issues relating to the island's partition.
The TKP and CTP were also concerned about the role settlers from the
Turkish mainland (estimated between 30,000 and 50,000) had in the
"TRNC" and might have in a possibly negotiated new federal,
bicommunal, and bizonal republic that could eventually replace the
Cypriot state that had come into being in 1960.
The TKP, the CTP, and the
YDP had formed an electoral alliance, the Democratic Struggle Party
(Demokratik Mücadele Partisi--DMP), for the 1990 parliamentary
elections. The party won sixteen seats. The TKP and CTP charged
election irregularities and refused to occupy their fourteen seats.
The 1991 by-election to fill these seats resulted in ten for the
UBP, the remainder going to several smaller parties and
independents. Many Turkish Cypriots were appalled at the results of
this election, fearing that the election endangered the survival of
democratic politics in their country. In the latter half of 1992,
ten of the UPB's delegates withdrew from the party and formed a new
group, the Democratic Party (Demokratik Parti--DP), headed by Hakki
Atun and having Serdar Denktas, a son of Rauf Denktas, as a member.
Atun and his partners were generally in agreement with the UBP on
the national issue, but charged the party's leadership with
extensive financial and political corruption. At the end of 1992,
the UBP still controlled thirty-four seats of the fifty-seat
Legislative Assembly, but its political dominance and its leader,
Dervi Eroglu, were under vigorous attack from the DP, the TKP, the
CTP, and some smaller parties.
This upheaval in Turkish
Cypriot politics occurred against a backdrop of international
controversy over the failure of intercommunal negotiations,
sponsored by the United Nations (UN) in the summer and fall of 1992,
to resolve the island's de facto partition. In the first half of
1992, there was more optimism than usual that these negotiations
would yield a settlement of the island's division that was
acceptable to both ethnic communities. Working from a "set of ideas"
that incorporated many hard-won compromises from earlier
negotiations, the new UN secretary general, Boutros Boutros-Ghali,
thought that an agreement was finally within reach. Meetings in the
summer and fall in New York between President Vassiliou and Turkish
Cypriot leader Rauf Denkta ended in early November, however, without
success. Lack of agreement on the degree of sovereignty each
component part of the new federal state was to possess, how much
territory Turkish Cypriots would relinquish, and under what
conditions Greek Cypriot refugees from areas remaining under Turkish
Cypriot control were to return to their homes caused the failure.
The secretary general issued a report that unequivocally blamed the
Turkish Cypriot side for the failed negotiations. The Turkish
Cypriots rejected his judgements as unfair. Talks were scheduled to
resume in March 1993 after presidential elections in the Republic of
Cyprus in February.
Intercommunal
negotiations to arrange a new bicommunal, bizonal federal republic
had been underway since 1975. In 1977 Makarios had agreed that the
new Cypriot state would consist of the two communities, each with
extensive local autonomy in discrete regions, but united via some
degree of federation into a single state. In 1979 procedures that
facilitated further dialogue were worked out by negotiators from the
two communities. Aided by the good offices of the UN, negotiations
continued at numerous venues through the 1980s and into the 1990s,
but without significant accomplishments. In early 1985, an agreement
was nearly achieved, but President Kyprianou backed off at the last
moment. Although Kyprianou was censured in the House of
Representatives for failure to reach an agreement, his party won the
ensuing parliamentary elections. Voter discontent removed him from
office in 1988. George Vassiliou, an independent, was elected
president, probably because Greek Cypriots hoped he could bring a
new openness and fresh initiatives to the negotiating process.
Over the years, Greek
Cypriots had come to accept the concept of a bicommunal, bizonal,
federal republic. This meant that some of Cyprus would remain under
Turkish Cypriot control. Greek Cypriots would be allowed to return
to properties they owned in this area before 1974, or be compensated
for them, but attention would be paid to "certain practical
difficulties." Also accepted was the principal Turkish Cypriot
demand that the two communities be seen as political equals despite
their differences in size. The Turkish Cypriot community was not to
be seen as a minority, although it made up less than 20 percent of
the island's population. It was to have exclusive management of its
own communal affairs. Frequent demands that Turkish troops be
withdrawn from the island before negotiations began had been
abandoned because of hopes that intercommunal talks could have
positive results.
As broad as these
concessions were, Greek Cypriots remained adamant on a number of
points. They demanded the eventual removal of Turkish troops from
the island. Of even greater importance and more difficult to resolve
was how to undo the losses suffered by Greek Cypriot refugees. An
estimated 160,000 Greek Cypriots had fled or been driven from their
homes and lost much property in what became the "TRNC," as compared
with about 50,000 Turkish Cypriots who had moved out of areas under
the control of the Republic of Cyprus. Greek Cypriot insistence on
realizing the "three freedoms" of movement, settlement, and
ownership throughout Cyprus for all Cypriots was intended to expunge
the results of the Turkish invasion.
Greek Cypriot demands
that the three freedoms eventually be realized throughout Cyprus
challenged negotiators. The degree and quality of federation, or
confederation, that Turkish Cypriots saw as a necessary underpinning
for their political freedom also received much discussion.
Reconciling these varied
aims would work only if both communities manifested patience,
flexibility, and good faith. Given the great stakes involved and the
power of pressure groups within communities (most notably refugee
groups), these qualities were often lacking. Observers noted that
both parties on occasion demonstrated a desire to win on all points
rather than conceding some. A negotiating team having made some
gains might suddenly renounce earlier concessions. Concessions
granted often resulted in vitriolic attacks from within the
negotiators' own community. Confidentiality of negotiations was
rare; within hours full accounts of closed talks were available to
the public.
As always in Cypriot
history, the success of a new settlement would be affected by
external forces. Turkey and Greece would almost certainly be
involved in the final agreement and would sign treaties similar to
the Treaties of Guarantee and Alliance. For both political and
military reasons, neither Greek nor Turkish elites could ignore
Cyprus because in recent decades events there had affected the
larger states, sometimes in ways not to their liking. To reach his
objectives, Archbishop Makarios, for example, frequently appealed to
the Greek people over the heads of the Greek political leadership.
Rauf Denktas, for his part, had so much personal support among
Turkey's political and military elites that only the strongest of
Turkish governments could coerce him. In effect, he was to some
degree independent of Turkey, the country that guaranteed his
survival and that of the "TRNC." Conversely, Greek and Turkish
politicians often found the Cyprus issue a ready tool with which to
attack their domestic opponents; hence there was a narrowing of the
range of policy decisions relating to Cyprus available to the
leaders of the two nations.
The end of the Cold War
has lessened international concern with Cyprus. The disappearance of
the Soviet Union meant, at least in the early 1990s, that Western
Europe's security would no longer be threatened by a rupture of the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization's southeastern flank in the event
of a war between Greece and Turkey over Cyprus, as could have
happened in 1964, 1967, and 1974. Cyprus's reduced geopolitical
significance is reflected by the increasing reluctance of the UN to
maintain forces on the island. In addition, instability elsewhere on
the globe has taxed the resources of the organization and its member
states. As part of a planned reduction of UNFICYP forces, the Danish
contingent of several hundred personnel was scheduled to depart from
Cyprus by mid-January 1993, leaving 1,500 UN soldiers to man the
buffer zone that cuts across the island.
In the short run at
least, the end of the Cold War would most likely benefit Turkey
because its size and location made its goodwill and cooperation
crucial to the Western powers, as was demonstrated in the Gulf
Crisis of 1990-91. Given the continuing instability in the Middle
East, in the Balkans, and in some of the former Soviet republics
bordering these areas, Turkey's strategic importance would probably
endure and make unlikely sustained and significant outside pressures
to resolve the Cyprus question. Greece retained, however, its trump
card: its ability to block Turkey's membership in the European
Community if the Cyprus problem were not settled in a way it found
satisfactory.
Despite the obstacles to
a mutually acceptable settlement, hope remained that the creation of
a new bicommunal, bizonal, federal state might someday be agreed on.
In 1992 after the nearly twenty years of division, the younger
members of each community had little or no first-hand knowledge of
one another. Some observers believed this lack of familiarity would
facilitate polite intercommunal relations along the formal lines
established by a new settlement. Young Cypriots had an advantage
their parents and grandparents had not had: they knew well how
terrible the results would be of another failure to live together
peacefully on their small island. Blessed with hindsight and aware
of the immense gains a reasonable settlement would bring, perhaps
young Cypriots would make their island whole
again.